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As global leaders assemble in Brazil for Cop30, it is essential to assess how we are faring together in lowering global greenhouse gas emissions.

Despite 30 years of UN climate summits, approximately half of the CO2 built up in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been emitted after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 marked the release of the initial scientific evaluation by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which verified the danger of anthropogenic climate change. While researchers work on the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so knowing that scientific findings remains eclipsed by political agendas. Regardless of well-intentioned efforts, the world is remains dangerously off track to avert catastrophic climate change.

Unprecedented CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Latest figures indicate that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a record high of 423.9 ppm in 2024, with the growth rate from 2023 to 2024 jumping by the biggest annual rise since modern measurements began in 1957. According to the international carbon monitoring initiative, 90% of worldwide carbon dioxide output in 2024 came from burning fossil fuels, while the other tenth resulted from alterations in land use such as forest clearance and forest fires.

While the increase in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was propelled by increased use of natural gas and petroleum—accounting for more than 50% of global emissions—the use of coal also reached a historic peak, making up forty-one percent. Despite Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to move beyond fossil fuels, global strategies still intend to produce more than double the quantity of fossil fuels in 2030 than is consistent with limiting planet heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius, with ongoing drilling of natural gas rationalized as a less polluting bridge fuel.

The Mirage of Nature-Based Solutions

Instead of focusing on economic incentives to accelerate the elimination of carbon fuels, environmental strategies are heavily reliant on feel-good nature positive approaches that seek to cancel out CO2 output by planting trees instead of cutting industrial emissions. While conserving, expanding, and rehabilitating ecological absorbers like forests and marshes is beneficial in itself, research has shown that there is insufficient territory to achieve the worldwide target of carbon neutrality using nature-based solutions by themselves.

Approximately one billion hectares—a territory bigger than the United States of America—is needed to fulfill carbon neutrality commitments. More than forty percent of this area would need to be converted from current applications like agriculture to carbon capture initiatives by 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Even if this ideal restoration could be achieved, woodlands take time to mature and are susceptible to fires, so they should not be viewed as a fast or lasting carbon storage solution, especially in a rapidly shifting environment. As extreme heat and aridity affect more of the planet, these sincere attempts could actually be destroyed by fire.

The Weakening of Planetary Absorbers

Scientific evidence tells us that about half of the carbon dioxide released each year remains in the atmosphere, while the rest is absorbed by seas and land ecosystems. With global heating, these natural carbon sinks are losing efficiency at capturing CO₂, which means that more carbon accumulates in the atmosphere, intensifying global warming. Shifting the reduction responsibility onto the agricultural and forest sectors simply relieves the oil and gas sector from the pressure to cut pollution any time soon.

The Carbon Debt and Coming Populations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century demands CO2 extraction (CDR), which at present relies almost exclusively on land-based measures to soak up excess carbon from the air. Emitting companies can simply buy carbon credits to counterbalance their emissions and continue with business as usual. Meanwhile, the energy imbalance resulting from the burning of fossil fuels continues to further destabilise the global climate system. Essentially, we are increasing our climate liability to our global account, leaving future generations with an unpayable liability.

To curb the scale and duration of overshoot the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the planet ultimately needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of net zero and start to remove cumulative historical emissions to achieve a carbon-negative state.

The Policy Misrepresentation of Net Zero

Based on the most recent data from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is currently absorbing the equivalent of about 5% of yearly CO2 from fuels, while technology-based CDR represents only about one-millionth of the carbon released from fossil fuels. More generous sector projections place it at around zero point one percent of total global emissions. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of carbon neutrality is a deceptive gap that distracts from the research-based necessity to eliminate the main source of our warming world—carbon-based energy.

The Urgent Need for Definite Steps

While this research-backed truth should dominate discussions at the climate summit, history suggests that gradual, cautious steps and political kowtowing will prevail. Vague statements of future ambition will keep on delay the pressing requirement for concrete immediate action. Until policymakers have the courage to put a price on carbon to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are adding increasing amounts of CO2 to the air, worsening the physical catastrophe now unfolding across the globe.

The dilemma we confront is straightforward: take real action to the scientific reality of our crisis or suffer the consequences of this deep ethical lapse for generations ahead.