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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.